by Jeremy Spitzberg and Neal Thurman
There's no denying it, this is a huge week coming up. The first two-match week of the season is always a time when fortunes are gained and lost for fantasy managers. Locking in a player for two matches only to find out that he injured himself warming up for the first match and that you'll get no points while someone else's poor choice is likely to get between 10 and 15 over two matches leads to some major swings. For those of you (including me) who have started out the season slowly, this is the opportunity to make up some major ground on the pack. For those who have come out of the gates strong, this is the time to distance yourself from the pack or fall back to it. Throw in the fact that the big teams are now starting to see injuries and rotation due to the strain of European and International commitments and the ability to put together a strong fantasy team goes beyond figuring out who the most talented XI are that will fit under your budget but who of those talented players will actually play the most minutes and who will be the victim of injury and rotation.
(As an aside to those who care about and/or follow US sports or even have some warm feelings for your favorite blogger and want to support his teams - the Phillies (baseball) and Penn State (college gridiron football) both have huge weekends coming up with the Phillies up 1-0 in the World Series and Penn State ranked #3 in the nation and playing Ohio State ranked #9). Honestly, it's a good thing my wife is going to be out of town this weekend for work because there's going to be a lot I want to be watching and I'm sure she'd be less than pleased to be witness to me spending THAT MUCH of the weekend on it. OK, enough rambling...)
As is generally the case when all teams are playing two matches in the course of a single week everyone plays one home match and one away match so there's no real advantage to be gained from working home/away. That said, there is great advantage to be had from working match-ups. Liverpool and Chelsea, for instance, have been excellent sources of fantasy points thus far they face eachother over the weekend and reasonably strong competition (Pompey and Hull respectively) in mid-week. On the other hand, ManYoo get stumbling Everton as their away match and equally shakey West Ham at home. Other strong match-up combinations can be found with Sunderland (NUFC & @Stoke), Arsenal (@WHU & Spurs), Citeh (Stoke & @Boro), and Villa (@Wigan & Rovers). Bolton, who I don't rate too highly, also have a reasonable schedule with @Spurs & Everton.
OK, on to the players...
Strikers
There has been a lot said and written in the last three weeks about the streaky nature of Wayne Rooney's performances and while this is definitely true, it is also true of Berbs who seems to be hitting his stride as well. With CRon, Rooney, and Berbs all expensive and in form, the big question is really which way to go. Really no wrong answer but before you all go rushing toward Rooney who costs 20+ you might want to consider Berbs at just over 15 instead. The only worry that you have spending on either Berbs or Rooney is the risk that Tevez takes a start away from one or the other which wouldn't be a big shock.
As much as I'm going to pat myself on the back for throwing Kuyt's name in the mix and pimping him to score last weekend, I'm backing off of the recommendation for this week. The opposition is much tougher and unlike Rooney and Berbs, he hasn't shown signs in his career of being a streaky goal-scorer but rather he is a sporadic one bound to frustrate you when you think he SHOULD be scoring. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Alternatives that should be of interest certainly include Cisse, RvP, K2, Gabby (assuming he's healthy again), Carew, Robinho, and Kevin Davies (yeah, I said it). Obviously, there are guys you should stick with if you have them at a reasonable price like Zaki.
Midfielders
This is a tough week to be spending on Gerrard, Lampard, or Arteta given their match-ups. If you have them cheap then sticking with them isn't a bad idea but not the weekend to buy in. I'd be looking at BFAY (good match-ups and still wanting to prove a point to Don Fabio), Barry (much cheaper way to get points from Villa midfield), SWP (just a points machine), Ireland (has quietly been a great producer), MTay (good match-ups and a reasonable price), Theo (seems to be coming into his own), and Nasri (not as many phantom points as I'd like but scores when he plays and still cheap).
For those who got on the Denilson bandwagon last month when he was getting all of Cesc's points, seems like it is time to abandon ship if you haven't already. He has seemingly been asked to move back in the formation somewhat and his opportunities to make the final pass or get a shot on target seem to have dried up.
Defenders
Hard to justify moving away from either Pantsil or Bosingwa and hopefully everyone is still on board here. Silvestre is a solid (and relatively inexpensive) option at the back. Jeremy mentioned Zuiverloon as a strong option as well, the match-ups aren't great but he's been sort of like Pantsil in that he's generally done well regardless of match-up. He's tireless getting up and down the flank and will get points both going forward and from his defending even if there aren't too many CSs coming.
If you're looking for a high risk situation, Jeremy just IMd me with the information that Beye's Red Card suspension was overturned and he is available for 4.6 matched up against Sunderland and WBA. Certainly not in the no-brainer category but worth mentioning.
Also worth checking in on Villa's starting line-up today to see if Cuellar is starting at Right Back again. He's cheap and Villa have a nice set of match-ups where they might be able to keep the ball out of the net again.
Keepers
The curse of Neal's keeper raised its ugly head again. I was pretty confident with Hart playing a struggling NUFC team to start with and then when the Magpies went down to 10 men I thought I was completely in the clear but, as they say, "That's why they play the games." Things turned ugly and once again I ended the week with a red (negative) number next to my keeper. I'm sticking with Hart for this week which probably means that you should be choosing between Friedel, Almunia, van der Sar, and Gordon. Obviously price plays a role here and your choice should be dictated by how much you have to spend but this is one of the rare cases where the quality of the choice is in direct proportion to the money spent with EvdS being the best bet for big points and Gordon being the least likely to score big.
So, good luck with your choices and I hope you enjoy a fantastic weekend of sporting activity. Go Phils! Go Penn State!
Cheers - Neal
Below is my picks for this week.
Goalkeeper: Gordon
Defender: Garrido, R.Gardner, A.Traore
Midfielder: A.Young, SWP, Denilson, Gary O'Neil
Striker: Robinho, Rooney, Elmander
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